Wednesday, April 18, 2007

Technology, life-cycle, Absorption, Exports, Forecasting,

Technology

Meaning of Technology
The word technology has been derived from the Greek word techno-logia – techno means an art or skill and logia means science or study. Thus, technology means systematic treatment of art or skill. In general, "technology" is the relationship that society has with its tools and crafts, and to what extent society can control its environment. The Merriam-Webster dictionary offers a definition of the term: "the practical application of knowledge especially in a particular area" and "a capability given by the practical application of knowledge".

The meaning of technology in different contexts has been elaborated below:

- When technology refers to ‘technical means’, it means the technical the technical means that people use to improve their surroundings.
- When technology is used as a ‘tool’ , it refers to tools and machines that may be used to help solve problems and attain certain goals.
- When technology is used as a ‘technique’ , it includes the technical methods, skills, processes, techniques, etc.
- Technology as ‘cultural force’ , can also be considered as an activity that forms or changes culture.
Thus, the meaning of the word ‘technology’ has to be understood in the context in which it is being used.

Types of Technology

A. Generic, Basic, and Key Technologies
1. Generic- This kind of technology is used all over the industry/s. Greater the range of application, more generic is technology, for ex. Conveyors, lubricants, electronic , device design
2. Basic- This type of technology provides a degree of strategic flexibility to a particular user, for ex. , use of optical readers in assembly line for quality control.
3. Key technology- This type of technology is proprietary and indigenous to the firm, and provides it wit competitive edge over others

B. Embodied and Disembodied Technologies

1. Embodied: This type of technology is encapsulate din products and physical equipments, such as technology used in manufacturing plants.
2. Disembodied: This type of technology is mainly intangible in nature. There are no specific products which give it a particular character.

C. System, and Infra Technologies

1. System Technologies: These technologies evolve by combining different technologies through information technology for development of large no. of applications like computer aided Flexible Management System.
2. Infra Technologies: These are group of technologies which support research and development, and manufacturing and marketing functions in the industry.


D. Hybrid and Emerging Technologies

1. Hybrid: this type of technology evolves by combining together features of different technologies, e.g., combining photography and digital technology in digital cameras.
2. Emerging: This type of technology is under advanced development stage and research has progressed far enough to indicate high probability of technical success for new applications and new products in the next ten years, e.g. , Biogenetics, Nanotechnology, etc.






Technology life-cycle

The biological concept of life cycle (i.e. Birth, Growth, Maturity and Death) can also be applied to a technology and the product , service or process associated with it. The technology life cycle can be broken down into the following distinct stages:

Stage I: Technology Development: Basic technology.
Stage II: Technology Application: Technology+ Applications
Stage III: Application Launch: Technology+ Application + Product Launch
Stage IV: Application Growth: Technology+ Applications+ Rise in product Sales
Stage V: Technological Maturity: Technology+ Applications+ Fall in product sales
Stage VI: Degraded Technology: Minimal Product sales + Loss of application+ Alternative technology

Diagram of S- Curve

In the stage I the basic technology is developed in the research and development centre.

In stage II , the various applications of new technology are explored and planned.

In stage III products , services, and processes based on these applications are launched in the markets. At this point of time they are usually not fully developed. A no. of alternate products, services and processes designs emerge and compete with each other.
In Stage IV, based on feedback and requirements of the markets, market – oriented applications are offered. This is the period of consolidation when the emphasis is on the standardization, manufacturing efficiencies, and economies of scale of mass production. This leads to rise in product sales.

In Stage V, technology reaches its maturity stage and rate of innovation slows down. While further development is affected by diminished returns and rapid increase in the development costs, markets become price competitive and growth begins to level out. A natural limit is reached when cost of further development of a product or a process becomes prohibitive. (This natural limit is called technological frontier-Dosi)

At the last stage VI, many applications of the existing technology lose relevance due to arrival of some alternative new technology. At this point of time, there are minimal sales of products or services based on remaining surviving applications considered somewhat useful by the markets.






Technology Absorption

Technology Absorption refers to the acquisition, development, assimilation and utilization of technological knowledge and capability by a firm, or some macro entity. It occurs between transferring and receiving entities.

Technology absorption is wider in scope than technology acquisition. Technology acquired, through technology acquisitions , may or may not be put to use. Technology absorption means putting the acquired technology to further development, assimilation and utilization.

Technology absorption may involve some or no changes in the parameters of acquired technology. Technology absorbed without changing the parameters of acquired technology is called technology adoption. Technology absorbed by changing certain parameters of acquired technology is called technology adaptation.

Structure/components of Technology Absorption

1. Hardware
2. Software
3. Brainware
4. Support Net






Technology Exports

Technology Exports are also known as External Technology Transfer

In this type of technology transfer , Control on the ownership and usage of technology usually does not remain with the transferor and it passes on to the recipient.

Successful technology export depends on these factors:

1. Type of the technology being exported.
2. Complexity of the technology being exported.
3. Export mechanism selected
4. Relationship between the parties- building of mutual trust.
5. Core competencies of the parties and compatibility thereof
6. Organizational culture of the parties and mutual understanding thereof

Some of the commonly used technology export mechanisms are as follows:
1. Cooperative and collaborative ventures.
2. Licensing agreements
3. Contracting agreements
4. Enterprises acquisitions

Factors / reasons necessitating technology exports are as follows:
1. Technology already developed saves time and effort.
2. Growth objectives, or competitive goals, cannot be reached through internal development
3. Lack of risk taking ability for innovations
4. Lack of internal resources for innovation.
5. Firm does not have core competencies to deal with complex technological developments
6. Need to keep up with competitors
7. Need to cope up with acceleration of the technological change
8. As a part of firms’ strategy – let the other firms take big risks and it will purchase technology developed by them.

Barriers to Technology Exports:
1. Associated Costs – usually high prices required to be paid in the form of royalties, etc.
2. Appropriateness of technology, i.e., its suitability to core competencies and market needs.
3. Heavy dependence
4. Lack of mutual trust may hinder full and timely transfer.
5. Fear of loss of control over technology.
6. Export may lead to technology obsolescence
7. Transferee may turn a potential competitor
8. Mismatch in core competencies of the transferor and the transferee
9. Different organization cultures
10. Lack of effective communication






Difference between Technology Export and Technology Acquisition:

The verb ‘acquire’ means
- To come into possession of; get as one’s own
- To gain for oneself through one’s actions or efforts

Technology acquisition is the process of acquiring a new technology. New product, process or service by the efforts of an individual, or an enterprise, or any other macro entity. This process can be conducted either internally or externally to the enterprise.

There is a thin line of demarcation between the two words – Technology export and Technology Acquisition. Sometimes the two are used interchangeably. Some vague differences between them are as under:

T.E. – Slightly wider in scope.
T.A. – Slightly lesser in scope.

T.E. – Includes both formal; and informal arrangements/processes
T.A. – Usually includes formal arrangements/ processes

T.E. – May or may not have legal boundaries.
T.A. – Usually have legal boundaries

T.E. – Focus on transfer from transferor to recipientT.A. – Focus on the transaction from the angle of acquirer






Technology Forecasting

Technology forecasting is forecasting the future characteristics of useful technological machines, procedures or techniques. It has the following 4 elements each of which must be properly defined so as to make a proper technology forecast and reap maximum benefits from it:

1. Time of forecast: Time of forecast should be stated clearly as it defines the time frame and time relevance of the technology forecast.
2. Approach in technology forecast: this element defines broad focus area and approach adopted for technology forecasting.
3. Statement and characteristics of technology: This element covers the core/ central area of the technology forecast and involves stating the characteristics of future technology viz. what shall be the functional capability (ability to carry out intended functions of planned technology).
4. Probability: This element deals with stating the probability of forecast being realized

Technology forecast is meaningful only when the above four elements are properly defined.

Benefits of technology forecast:

Since 1990s the rate of technological change has increased. Individuals, organizations, as well as nations are affected by technological change as it invalidates the previous resource allocation based on historical facts. Therefore technology forecast is no more avoidable.

Following factors necessitate forecast of technology:
1. To maximize gain from events external to an organization.
2. To minimize loss associated with uncontrollable events external to an organization.
3. To maximize gain from events that are a result of action taken by an organization.
4. To offset the actions of hostile/competitive organizations
5. To forecast demand for production and/ or inventory control
6. To forecast demand for facilities and capital planning
7. To forecast demand and ensure adequate staffing.
8. To develop administrative plans and policies internal to an org.
9. To develop policies that apply to people who are not part of the organization

In a nutshell, technology forecast helps to maximize gains, minimize losses and to reduce risks and uncertainties associated with future technological events and developments.

Techniques of forecasting ,
A. Involving a group of experts are:
1. Committees: It is a qualitative forecasting technique in which a group of experts are involved, this helps in avoiding individual biasness.
Advantages:
- Sum total of knowledge is greater than individual knowledge
- Number of factors considered would be more than those considered by an individual.
- There is a pooling of divergent ideas and various dimensions may be analyzed in a better manner.
- Helps in avoiding individual biases

Limitations:
- Social pressure to agree with majority
- Reaching agreement becomes a goal in itself
- Entire group may share a common bias
- Lot of time and effort consumed

2. Delphi:
Delphi is a qualitative forecasting technique in which a panel of experts working separately and not meeting each other arrive at a consensus through the summarizing of ideas by a skilled coordinator . The experts are known as Panel.

Delphi sequence is carried out by interrogating a group of experts with a series of questionnaires.

Advantages of Delphi:
It helps in overcoming the disadvantages of face-to-face group interactions (like committee)There is no direct communication between the members , which ensures that there is no domination by certain individuals , no personal conflicts, etc,

Limitations
The success of Delphi lies with the coordinator. The coordinator must be skilled and have necessary expertise and experience to set questions, summarize predictions, synthesize divergent predictions , and draw conclusions.

B. techniques base on Historical data
1. Exploratory Forecast
It starts with the past and present conditions and projects these to estimate future conditions. It is based on technology push and is opportunity oriented , i.e. searching for future opportunities.
2 Normative Forecast
It starts with future needs and identifies the technological performance necessary to meet these required needs. It is based on market pull and is mission oriented.

Few techniques of Normative Forecasts are:
- Relevance Trees
- Decision Matrices
- Morphological Analysis
- Network Techniques
- Mission flow diagrams

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